Insilico Medicine began trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange this morning under the code 3696, raising about HK$2.28 billion — roughly US$290 million — in what the company calls the largest Hong Kong biotech IPO of the year. Its stated mission is "extending human productive longevity." Its lead drug, rentosertib, is for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, a progressive and fatal scarring of the lungs, and it has completed a Phase IIa trial published this year in Nature Medicine. The company describes it as the most advanced first-in-class drug discovered by artificial intelligence. We think the listing is a milestone. We also think the two sentences above — longevity in the mission, lung disease in the pipeline — are the most honest summary of where the science of aging actually stands at the end of 2025.
Why the pipeline is where it is. Aging is not a disease that regulators recognize, so there is no approval pathway for a drug that treats it, no trial design agreed upon, and no endpoint everyone accepts. A company that wants to turn aging biology into medicine has to pick a disease with a diagnosis, a progression and a yardstick, and prove itself there. Pulmonary fibrosis is one such disease; its target, the company says, came out of aging-related biology. That is the right order of operations and the one most of the consumer longevity industry skips. The trial that got published was a small Phase IIa — an early efficacy study — and the drug still has to survive the larger trials where most candidates fail. It is a lead, not a cure, and the company says so in its filings.
Public markets are a harder judge than venture rounds, and this listing says something that private valuations in longevity have not: there is enough real drug-development work here to carry a prospectus. Read the prospectus, though, and the longevity is the mission statement; the revenue is partnerships and a lung drug. That is not a criticism. It is the shape every serious longevity company will take — a disease first, a biology second, aging as the long-run thesis. The companies selling you aging now, with nothing in a clinic, are the ones to be suspicious of.
My patients hear "AI-discovered longevity drug" and picture a pill for aging. What exists is an experimental treatment for a terrible lung disease, tested in a small number of patients for a short time, that may or may not work in the larger trials ahead. If it does, people with pulmonary fibrosis will get a medicine and the field will have learned something about aging biology. Nobody healthy will be prescribed it. The gap between the headline and the drug is the gap my whole practice lives in.
Why it matters to a recovering optimizer. We end the year where we began it, with a distinction. The science of aging is real, well-funded and slow, and its first products will be drugs for diseases, approved after trials. The longevity industry sells that science's vocabulary — longevity, reprogramming, biomarkers, AI — attached to products that have never been near a trial. The former is worth watching for a decade. The latter is worth declining today. The five fundamentals, meanwhile, remain the only interventions with human evidence you can act on tonight, and none of them listed on an exchange.
When a company says longevity, ask what disease its lead drug treats. If the answer is "aging," there is no drug yet.